AOPR (Part 1): Reconciling AOPR with your betsFebruary 13
The field of horse racing has evolved the system of handicapping sportspersons based on their abilities as well as those of the opponents. This system of handicapping has been followed in college football games with the application of BCS system or the Bowl Championship Series. This system has now been made public knowledge and the common man is appraised of the handicapping system in sports.
The use of AOPR (Average Opponent Power Rating) enables the betting public to estimate the variation in the rival teams in a particular game have played on their way to this stage. So the analysis is based not on any SWOT (Strength / Weakness / Opportunity / Threats) technique but is purely on the wins or losses which the relevant teams have undergone on their journey up to now.
In simpler terms, AOPR is mainly put in use to assess the track record of both the teams. The number of losses or wins which each of the opposing teams have registered up to now is scrutinized by the betting individuals with the use of AOPR. This AOPR is a way of assessing the worthiness of any college team playing basketball or football, before they enter the playoffs at conference level. There is a tendency for college teams to play weaker opponents before they reach the playoffs. These teams are taken care of during all their lineups to the majors and hence, are made to look like winners when they have glass feet and butter fingers.
Some teams go the other extreme way and play only teams who have strong records. This makes the teams look like losers if they have a losing record while playing the strong teams in the pre-playoffs. This appearance of being losers will automatically have a bearing on the handicap associated with them. At the same time, there are also teams who travel the middle road, playing any team they are scheduled to do so. Whatever handicap is associated with such teams will be more realistic than those for the other teams. The modus operandi for allocating these handicaps to college teams playing basketball or football will be very similar but the basis may differ due to the way the teams have played during their preliminary rounds.
The Hoyas of Georgetown when they played in the 1980?s always started their preliminaries with a roster that puts them against teams of lower caliber like those from St. Leo or St. Francis, Morgan State or even Hawaii-Hilo. This enables the Hoyas to boast a higher winning record when they entered the playoffs for the Big East. On the other extreme were the David Crum?s Cardinals from Louisville who played all the tough top rankers they could. Yes, the Cardinals had many losses against their names, but the vast experience they gained from playing these tough teams did much to offset the shame of having many losses registered against them. This vast experience helped the Cardinals in the premier Big East matches which involved strong teams. Since both the teams employed differing MOs on their way to the playoffs with equal success, there can never be a definite MO to ensure success.